The Black Swan by Nassim Nicholas TalebISBN: 081297381X
Publication Date: 2010-05-11
A black swan is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random, and more predictable, than it was. The astonishing success of Google was a black swan; so was 9/11. For years, Taleb has studied how we fool ourselves into thinking we know more than we actually do. In this revelatory book, Taleb explains everything we know about what we don't know. Elegant, startling, and universal in its applications, The Black Swan will change the way you look at the world. Taleb is a vastly entertaining writer, with wit, irreverence, and unusual stories to tell. . We eagerly romp with him through the follies of confirmation bias [and] narrative fallacy."--The Wall Street Journal "Hugely enjoyable--compelling . . . easy to dip into."--Financial Times